Occam's Razor
The simplest explanation that fits the facts is usually right. Complexity is a cost, not a feature. The principle that cuts through over-engineered solutions.
Fewest assumptions. Highest probability.
William of Ockham, a 14th-century friar, stated a principle that still cuts: entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity. In practice — when two explanations fit the same facts, the one with fewer assumptions is more likely to be correct. Not because simplicity is elegant, but because every assumption is a point of failure. Fewer assumptions mean fewer ways to be wrong.
The razor is not a law of nature. It's a heuristic — a probability-weighted bet. Complex explanations require more conditions to hold, and each condition is a place the explanation can break. Occam's Razor tells you to count the joints and prefer the structure with the fewest.
William of Ockham"Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate. Plurality must never be posited without necessity. The simplest adequate explanation is the one to prefer."
A four-step process.
State the problem
Define what needs explaining — a metric drop, a bug, a customer complaint, a team conflict.
List explanations
Write every explanation that fits the observed facts. Don't filter — cast wide.
Count assumptions
For each, count the unverified conditions it depends on. Each assumption is a risk.
Test the simplest first
Investigate the explanation with fewest assumptions first. Most often, it resolves the case.
SaaS pricing simplification.
A B2B SaaS company offered seven pricing tiers, per-seat add-ons, usage overages, enterprise contracts, and a custom-quote track. Revenue was growing but churn was climbing, sales cycles stretched past 60 days, and the team fielded daily billing disputes.
Executives proposed three competing explanations: competitor pressure, product-market fit erosion, or a pricing-model flaw. The first required a market shift. The second required a product pivot. The third required only one assumption — that the pricing structure was too complex for buyers to evaluate. One assumption. The razor pointed there.
They simplified to three tiers, flat per-seat pricing, no overages. Churn dropped 18%, sales cycle halved, billing disputes vanished. The simplest explanation that fit the facts was correct. Complexity was the cost — and removing it was the fix.
What's the simplest explanation?
When a problem resists resolution, it often means you're entertaining an explanation with too many moving parts. Let's apply the razor together.
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